Belarusian vox populi (Article 1/2012)
Author: Van Beethoven*
For many years, our opposition, non-governmental organizations, as well as Western politicians, have been thoroughly occupied in criticizing the tyrant Lukashenko - Europe's last dictator. There is more than enough justification for this. The lawlessness of the authocratic regime established by Alexander Lukashenko has included Belarus onto a list of the least democratic, least free countries in the World. Condoleezza Rice when U.S. State Secretary, deemed Belarus, Cuba, Iran, Burma, North Korea and Zimbabwe as "outposts of tyranny”.
Why are Belarusian “Good Guys” not popular in Belarus?
Lukashenko's press conferences have become favorite TV entertainment for Belarusians. They have given rise both to jokes and to criticism. Debate on elections, sanctions or political prisoners - which have developed during the recent years among the opposition raised the questions about the repetitive nature and purpose of this mess, in terms of the actual struggle against a dictatorial regime.
Despite the severe economic crisis and the considerable fall in living standards and despite the drop in the rating of the present ruling power, there is no improvement in the ratings of the opposition parties. People are still disappointed in them and, so is the West. What is behind this failure? It seems to me that it is not only the absence of freedoms, the violation of basic human rights and the repressive actions of the security forces. These are of course significant factors. But I think that all of us - both Belarusian opposition and the Western Powers - have fallen into the trap of focusing all efforts on the personality of Lukashenko and concentrating on the struggle with him alone.
It would appear this is a play entitled "We’re all Good Guys set against the Bad Guy Lukashenko” - a play in which everyone has an active role. I would not like to think that everyone involved in this production does so deliberately but rather, is simply playing a role which has been written for them. However, taking into consideration the repeated attempts of KGB officials to recruit some members of the opposition, we can assume some of them are connected by ‘certain ties’ with the "puppet masters" from “The Home of Good Deeds”. The regime has a vested interest in ensuring that opposition forces have been distracted by ‘tilting at windmills’.
No matter how many times you call Lukashenko a bad person he won`t become any better. Those who fight against the regime and those who are involved in this performance forget that dictators are never reformed. Vitaly Silitski wrote "…. the key to changing the situation in Belarus is not in the terms of impact on Lukashenko but, in the form of the impact on Belarusian society."
Why are Western politicians not popular in Belarus?
Unfortunately, Western politicians also fall for this. People are aware of what Lukashenko is and of the fact that “everything is bad” in Belarus. Official propaganda continues to irritate. But what is the alternative? What can be offered instead of it? What has been put forward by the opposition? An Eastern Partnership has been proposed by the West but this is absolutely not enough! The Belarusian people are very pragmatic. Basic democratic values won`t attract them to the side of the opposition. Furthermore, those values will not cause them to risk their possessions and come out.
The proposed policy should give people tangible economic benefits first. Here you can see how people's opinions can change on such issues as the union with Russia, the EU, the transition to the Russian ruble, the Euro and others. Today the process of integration with Russia is underway. Putin has made his intention to ‘absorb’ Belarus clear. In his pre-election article he writes that “we are going to compromise, we are even ready for concessions. But very soon, these concessions will be repaid a hundredfold." Putin's pseudo-democracy has much less chance of being transformed into a real democracy than our Belarusian dictatorship. And what are the economic prospects of unification? It is supposed that in Belarus by 2030 the share of energy consumption and environmentally harmful metals will have increased (from 2.3 to 4.2%) while at the same time it will be reduced in Russia's economy (3 p.p.).
Well, yes, Russia doesn`t need harmful production. Belarus "in 2015-2025 will be able to provide GDP growth by about twice less than that of Russia and Kazakhstan. This will have a negative impact on the living standards of the citizens of Belarus and it will increase social tension and activate the emigration from the country”. This is how they see the prospects of integration from Moscow.
How to escape the Lukashenko trap?
The prospects for Belarus are not very bright. But where is the alternative which is likely to appeal to people? The task of developing a clear and compelling economic program and a clear strategic plan for its implementation is to be solved by the democratic forces of Belarus with the help of domestic and foreign experts. It is obvious that the dependence of the Belarusian economy on Russia should be reduced. But it should be done gradually so as not to cause a sharp drop in living standards. The democratization of Belarus will open the way for cooperation with the West and the possibility of obtaining economic support for economic and political reform.
Parties fighting for power in Belarus need to switch activities from cynicism or criticism of the regime, to genuine campaigning and spreading the word among the people. They must put forward attractive ways of promoting the development of Belarus as the alternative to dead-end "Lukanomics".
People want to live better. This is what concerns them far more than Lukashenko`s tricks, elections and political sanctions. This is what politicians and the opposition should talk about, not about "bald tires". The ideas of the opposition must start to gain popularity among the people. They should be designed to appeal to the public. If democratic forces achieve a rating of 80 - 90% - what election falsifications could there possibly be…….. None!!
*This article has been written by a Belarusian worker (50+ years, male) who is living in the city Gomel. To protect himself and his family, he is publishing on this blog under the pen name Van Beethoven. The article has been translated by volunteers in Belarus and Great Britain. Belarus Freedom News thanks all people who made it possible to publish our first vox populi article.
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